Fresno State – UCLA Offensive Preview
The Bulldogs head into the UCLA game fresh off a tough 55-54 win over Toledo at the Glass Bowl. Fresno State’s win was the first for a ranked team over Toledo in their home stadium in history. Prior to that Toledo had a perfect 4-0 record against ranked teams at home. Fresno State will have to enter their game against UCLA with the same type of offensive plan that they used in the second half against Toledo. The Bulldogs had the ball a total of eight times in the second half scoring on seven of those possessions. The Bulldogs are led by QB Tom Brandstater who has thrown for over 670 yards and five td’s compared to one interception on the season. Brandstater is currently second in the WAC in pass efficiency with a 150.6 rating.
The running game will play a huge role on Saturday for the Bulldogs as well. Ryan Mathews leads the WAC with an average of 101 yards per game. While Lonyae Miller and Anthony Harding have not received the same amount of carries that Mathews has, they have both combined to average over 7 yards per carry. Fresno State’s three running backs will once again play a key role in controlling the tempo of the game against UCLA’s stellar Linebackers. While Fresno State will try to rely on the running game there is no reason to think that the Bulldog’s receivers will go quiet throughout the game against UCLA. Seyi Ajirotutu leads the Bulldogs talented receiving unit averaging over 75 yards per game. Ajirotutu has yet to get into the end zone but that should change sooner than later. If UCLA is able to take Ajirotutu out of the game with great coverage the Bulldogs will look to Bear Pascoe and Marlon Moore who have averaged nearly 70 yards receiving per game combined. The Bulldogs have the advantage on offense due to the fact that Kevin Kraft has been less than stellar as the starting QB and the Bruins running game has yet to get off of the ground. However, the Bruins should not be overlooked in this game.
UCLA has struggled mightily on offense this season. Kevin Kraft has thrown for an average of 190 yards per game. Unfortunately he has thrown 5 interceptions to only 1 td for the offense. Kraft has been erratic this season as he has only completed 56% of his passes and has a subpar QB rating of 92.2. The reason Kraft has struggled so mightily may be the fact that the UCLA offensive line has been ravished by injuries leaving the running game in peril. The Bruins have averaged 51 yards per game on the ground which is bad enough to be ranked 117th in the nation. If the Bruins hope to challenge Fresno State on Saturday they are going to have to find a way to run the ball successfully. On the positive side prior to the game against Arizona the Bruins had averaged 19 yards per game on the ground but were able to more than double their rushing average against Arizona. Although the Bruins were unable to come away with a win they will be a tough team for the Bulldogs to defeat. Fresno State has never won at the Rose Bowl and will be looking to make history in this game against the Bruins.
The Bruins receivers have struggled as well due to the fact that Kraft has not had enough time to throw the ball. If the offensive line continues to break down the Bruins could possibly be looking at one more win this season (Washington State). If the Bruins line is able to protect Kraft he has the ability to read the defense and make great throws. Expect the Bulldog defense to play very similar to the way they did against Wisconsin. Although Wisconsin is ranked in the top ten and UCLA is not this is still viewed as a huge game to the Bulldogs. Fresno State has always taken games against the Pac-10 seriously. Do not expect this game to be any different.
Fresno State – UCLA Defensive Preview
Fresno State is coming off of its worst defensive performance of the season allowing over 500 yards of total offense and 54 points to Toledo. This game may come down to which Bulldogs defense takes the field. Will the Bulldogs defense from the first two games stop the Bruins or will the defense that allowed 54 points to Toledo be the one the nation sees?Fresno State will be without Jon Monga and Cornell Banks on the defensive line putting them at a disadvantage. Wilson Ramos, Ikenna Ike, Chris Lewis, Michael Stuart, Jason Roberts, and Logan Harrell will have to find a way to pressure the QB and improve on their sack rate which at the moment is tied for last in the WAC with Idaho at 2.
On the positive side of things the Bulldogs Linebackers have been outstanding this season. Ben Jacobs is averaging over 9 tackles per game while Chris Carter is just behind him at 7 tackles per game. At the same time the Bulldogs secondary has been strong this season. Toledo put up a large amount of yards on Fresno State’s secondary but the slick field had plenty to do with that. Fresno State will have to shore up it’s tackling on Saturday in order to keep the Bruins in third and long situations. With A.J. Jefferson and Sharrod Davis at the corner positions there is a good chance all passes thrown to the outside will be contested. Fresno State’s defense will do enough in this game to give the Bulldogs offense a chance to take control of the game early on. Whether or not that happens will come down to the offense and if they get an early start or wait until the second half to get going as they did the first three games of the season.
UCLA has had problems stopping both the run and the pass this season. The Bruins have given up an average of 38 points per game this season while allowing over 400 yards per game of total offense. UCLA has been decimated by injuries but more so on offense than defense. The problem the Bruins have faced is the fact that their offense cannot sustain drives down the field. The offense has turned the ball over far too many times and continually puts the defense in one terrible situation after another. Against Fresno State the Bruins will try to pressure the QB and limit the amount of yards the Dogs get on the ground. The way to beat Fresno State is to force them into third and long situations. Fresno State leads with the run and if they are faced with third and long they no longer have the option to run the ball forcing them to pass when they would rather not. Tom Brandstater has the ability to make big plays but any defense will stand a much better chance of stopping the Dogs offense if they can limit the amount of rushing yards Fresno State attains on the ground. Look for UCLA to come out in different sets in order to confuse the Fresno State offense. The Bruins defense has been subpar this season and will have to do everything in their power to stop a Bulldogs offense that is averaging nearly 400 yards per game on offense.
Fresno State – UCLA Special Teams Preview
The Bulldogs special teams unit has been outstanding throughout the Pat Hill era. Since 2002 the Bulldogs have blocked the most kicks in the nation with 40. The kick return game has been outstanding once again as A.J. Jefferson has averaged nearly 32 yards per return. While the kicking game has struggled Kevin Goessling is getting better with time. Last week Goessling went two for three with his only miss being from 58 yards at the end of regulation. Kevin Malone has been great this season as he has averaged 45 yards per punt which is good for second in the WAC.
UCLA has struggled on special teams’ coverage this season meaning the Bulldogs will try to exploit the Bruins on every kickoff. Unfortunately the Dogs may not be able to do so as UCLA more than likely will try and play keep away from Jefferson. Expect the Dogs to make some noise in the return game if the Bruins take their chances by kicking to Jefferson. If the Bruins stay away from Jefferson the Dogs will have a much tougher time on special teams than usual.
UCLA’s special team unit has averaged just over 20 yards per return. The Bruins have done a poor job of giving their offense good field position. Fresno State has allowed just over 20 yards per kickoff return so expect the Bruins to continue with their average of 20 in this game. The Bruins field goal kicker Kai Forbath has converted three field goals in five attempts. The Bulldogs may have a chance to add another block to their total if the Bruins offense cannot move the ball inside of the 30 yard line. Overall the Bruins will have to find a way to get more out of their return game. The one positive on special teams has been the Bruins punter Aaron Perez who has averaged 44 yards per punt. If the Bruins have to punt often at least they know they are getting a great effort in this phase of the game.
Fresno State – UCLA Prediction
Last week BB.C predicted the Bulldogs would win a close but ugly game with Toledo. That is exactly what happened although the score was much higher than originally predicted. Saturday BB.C feels that the Bulldogs will control the line of scrimmage and win their game with the Bruins. However, Fresno State has a way of making games much closer than they should be. Look for a hard fought win out of Fresno State with the score being in the arena of:
Fresno State 35
UCLA 17