Fresno State
Last week against La. Tech Fresno State put up thirty-five points. While that sounds impressive a deeper look into the offensive production will tell you that the Bulldogs offense did not play well as a unit last week. The Bulldogs rushed for less than 70 yards and needed a punt return and a last minute drive to accumulate 35 points. During the course of the game Fresno State had three different chances to blow their game with La. Tech open and failed each time. Against Nevada the Bulldogs offense will not be able to make the same mistakes and keep the game close. Nevada’s offense averages close to forty points per game meaning Fresno State is going to have to match the Wolfpack score for score if they want to stay in the game. During the Pat Hill era the Bulldogs have tried to establish the run in order to open up the play action pass. That will not work against Nevada and their stellar run defense. However, the Wolfpack’s pass defense is suspect at best giving up an average of 327 yards per game. If Fresno State wants to take control of this game early they are going to have use four receiver sets often and spread the ball around the field. Tom Brandstater has been in the system for six years now and this is the time where the Bulldogs need him to step up and become the leader of this team. Brandstater has four games remaining (not counting a bowl game) as the Bulldogs signal caller. He needs to make the most of them starting tomorrow against Nevada. Look for the Bulldogs to try to run the ball because they always do. However, Fresno State will try to throw often in this game. If they don’t this game could be ugly very early on.
Defensively Fresno State enters their game with too many questions to answer in the span of one week. The Bulldogs cannot stop the passing game. The Bulldogs cannot force turnovers. The Bulldogs have not sacked the QB or put enough pressure on him this season. Finally the Bulldogs have done absolutely nothing to stop the opponent’s running game. To make matters worse Nevada has one of the more elusive QB’s in the nation meaning Fresno State will have an even tougher time stopping the Wolfpack than they are used to. The Bulldogs will have to disguise their packages on defense and leave a spy on Colin Kaepernick if they hope to limit the amount of yards he rushes for. Fresno State has not done a good job of keeping containment to the outside and Kaepernick is the type of QB that will make a defense pay for under pursuing him. If Fresno State decides to blitz CK they are going to have to make sure to close down any running lanes or it is off to the races. Kaepernick is much faster than any linebacker Fresno State has meaning that the defense will have their hands full Friday night. With that being said Kaepernick is the type of QB who can be forced into making bad decisions. If Fresno State can find a way to pressure Kaepernick into throwing before he wants to the Bulldogs may come away with a few timely turnovers. However, Fresno State has not been able to pressure anyone to this date and this relatively no reason to think that will change tomorrow night.
Nevada
Offensively Nevada is a nightmare for anyone to face. Their QB runs better than most and their offense continually churns out one touchdown after another. The Wolfpack are similar to Fresno State due to the fact that both offenses have the ability to score points regardless of how bad their defenses are. Nevada averages over 500 yards of total offense per game (yes 500 yards). They average 200 in the air and 300 on the ground. In other words this Wolfpack team has the ability to beat you in every possible way. The Bulldogs secondary will be tested by both the running game and passing game. The Bulldogs LB unit will be tested by the speedy QB Nevada has. Fresno State’s d-line will be tested because they always are regardless of who they play. On the ground Nevada has two main options they like to use: Vai Taua who averages 112 yards rushing per game and Colin Kaepernick who averages 94 yards per game. Through the air the Wolfpack’s main target is Marco Mitchell who averages 81 yards per game and has reeled in 5 touchdowns this season. If the offensive line of Nevada is able to give Kaepernick time to throw look for the Wolfpack to score on nearly every possession. Fresno State needs to be able to pressure Nevada into making mistakes. Unfortunately that is something the Bulldogs have not been able to do to anyone this season.
Defensively Nevada has had problems stopping the opponents passing game. Fortunately for Nevada Fresno State likes to run the ball constantly at times to slow the game down and control the clock. Since Nevada has given up an average of less than 70 yards per game rushing they will more than welcome any team to try and run the ball on them. If the Bulldogs want to win this game they will have to trust their QB’s arm and win this game through the air. Nevada will take chances against the Bulldogs offense because they know one turnover could make the difference in the game. If the Wolfpack is able to score early and pick off a pass or force a fumble they will put the Bulldogs in a position to play from behind very early in the game. This is something Fresno State wants to avoid because their style of play does not allow them to make up big deficits. It is for this reason that Nevada will continually take chances and make the Bulldogs beat them with great plays. If the Bulldogs can break through Nevada’s pressure this game may go down to the wire in what may be a salute to a WAC game played in the 1990’s.
BB.C Prediction
Nevada 49
Fresno State 35