Boise State had the dramatic come from behind win in 2001 behind the arm of Ryan Dinwiddie. The Broncos dominated the 2003 game start to finish jumping out to a quick 21-0 lead. However, the 2005 game in Fresno was all Bulldogs, after the Broncos scored first to take a quick 7-0 lead.

What does this year’s matchup have in store?

First, the Broncos will be without top10 Heisman finalist and third team All-American RB Ian Johnson for tonight’s game. In addition, standout WR Vinny Perretta is also out for the year.

The injury bug has bitten the Bulldogs all year long. Starting RB Lonyae Miller is listed as day-to-day with a bruised knee. Still the Bulldogs have lost six starters for the year to season-ending injuries.

Both teams enter the contest unbeaten in WAC play for the third time in the series. In addition, for the first since 2002, neither team is ranked in the top 25. However, both schools are receiving votes in both polls.

FRESNO STATE

What to look for on offense: New offensive wrinkles…Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain loves to gameplan for opposing schools. Texas A&M and Nevada got special packages, after the Bulldogs looked rather pedestrian in the preceding games. Oregon had one as well, but the ‘Dogs were taken out of their game plan early on in that contest. Boise State will have to do the same, otherwise, the Broncos can expect to see many new plays and formations not seen on film.
Who to look for on offense: Ryan Mathews….In spite of any special game plan, the offense begins and starts with the run game. Moreover, with Lonyae Miller listed as day-to-day, Mathews could get a season-high in carries. The Broncos have shown their vulnerability against the run, especially allowing big plays. There are few big-play threats in the WAC that are as explosive as Mathews is.
What to look for on defense: Quarterback pressure…Taylor Tharp leads the WAC in passing efficiency, but he has shown he can make mistakes. He threw multiple interceptions against a decent Washington defense in week two. Fresno State can pressure with its front four, but may bring the heat to thwart the Broncos passing attack.
Who to look for on defense: Ben Jacobs…The freshman has been outstanding this season, but faces his biggest test of his young career. The Broncos shift and motion like no other team in NCAA. They execute with precision, and BSU has not struggled in WAC play to score points against opposing defenses. Jacobs is responsible for all defensive calls, and the Broncos will likely test Jacobs’ mental capacity.

BOISE STATE

What to look for on offense: Strong run game…It does not matter if Ian Johnson is playing or not. Boise State predicates its offense on the run, and freshman Jeremy Avery is more than capable of carrying the load. Few teams in the nation have been able to stop the Broncos offense no matter who has been executing it the last six years.
Who to look for on offense: Taylor Tharp…He is averaging 265 yards passing per game with 18 touchdowns on the season. He is not the running threat Jared Zanbransky was, but Tharp is a very accurate passer. If given time, he can pick apart a defense, especially one that has trouble interception passes.
What to look for on defense: Nine in the box…It is no secret that the Bulldogs like to run the football. No team has been able to shutdown the run and force QB Tom Brandstater to pass. A&M and Oregon had huge early leads coming off early Bulldog mistakes. Brandstater and the Bulldogs have cut down on their mistakes, but more importantly, he is ready to throw the football. BSU will probably grant his wish. The Broncos will do their best to shutdown the run game and make Brandstater beat them with his arm.
Who to look for on defense: Marty Tadman…He is one of the best free safeties in the West. He will be expected to shore up a defense that gave up three runs of 25 yards or more against Louisiana Tech last week. The free safety is usually the last line of defense between a running back and the end zone. His last appearance in Bulldog Stadium will be forever remembered as the time Paul Williams threw him to the ground, using his facemask, on his way to a 98-yard TD reception.

PREDICTION

Fresno State has started slow in each of its first three home games. Nonetheless, the defense has allowed just nine points in those games, for an average win of 24-3. Boise State, on the other hand, loves to start fast. Only Washington has been able to slow down the Broncos. While the Huskies looked strong in week two, it is safe to say the Bulldogs are the best team Boise State has seen all season.

Fresno State has improved each week. Either the ‘Dogs continue to improve this week or the progression comes to an immediate halt. The Broncos are not just any opponent, they are the cream of the crop in the WAC. They do not lie down and give up. In fact, since their 2001 upset win in Fresno, BSU has lost by 20 points or more just three times. The last time was the 2005 Fresno State game.

If the Bulldogs continue their improvement and protect the football, they have enough talent to beat Boise State. If Boise State is taken out of their gameplan and starts to turn over the football, the score could be similar to the 2005 game. However, do not be surprised to see the Broncos jump out to an early two or three touchdown lead and cruise to another WAC victory.
EA Sports NCAA 2008 says: Boise State 27, Fresno State 21
BarkBoard.com says: Fresno State 34, Boise State 28